Inter Miami vs FC Dallas: High Stakes as Messi's Side Dominate the Odds
Everyone’s eyes are on Fort Lauderdale this April as Inter Miami, still riding high off Lionel Messi’s magic, prepares to face FC Dallas at Chase Stadium. With kickoff at 5 PM ET on April 28, 2025, the matchup highlights teams who couldn’t have had more different seasons—Miami’s dominance stacking up against Dallas’s rocky path under new coach Peter Quill.
Let’s be real—Inter Miami is coming in hot. Coach Javier Mascherano’s squad hasn’t just tightened up at the back, conceding a stingy average of 0.75 goals per game, but they’re also making the most of their firepower, smashing in 1.63 goals on average each match. That mix of a tough defense and relentless attack has them not only winning on the road, like their recent victory over the Columbus Crew, but also pushing deep in continental tournaments. It’s not all perfect—the first leg against Vancouver in the CONCACAF Champions Cup semifinals ended 2-0 against them, showing there’s still work to be done. But at home, they’re a force.
Now, flip over to FC Dallas. It’s a pretty different picture. Peter Quill walked in hoping to wake up a side that finished last season way behind the playoff pack, earning just 41 points. So far, though, consistency just hasn’t shown up. Dallas has clocked only three wins in 2025—beating Houston Dynamo, Real Salt Lake, and Sporting Kansas City—but their last game was a dreary scoreless draw against Minnesota. The attack, averaging 1.11 goals a game, isn’t scary, and the defense is springing leaks at 1.22 conceded per game. On the road, especially against a team like Miami, those numbers aren’t encouraging.
Odds, Predictions, and What Really Matters
Bookmakers and data models are all leaning heavily to the home team. Oddspedia pegs the probability of an Inter Miami win at 64.52%, while Dallas lags far behind at just 14.47%, with draws slightly more likely at 21%. Another model, from Dimers.com, comes out pretty close, with Miami at 59.3% win probability. Betting experts suggest taking Miami with a -1 goal handicap, and the odds (1.88) say there’s not much faith in a Dallas upset.
At the center of it all? Still Messi. The Argentine superstar is proving week after week why he’s the focus—his vision and movement are unlocking defenses and keeping Miami’s attack humming. Messi’s influence goes beyond just goals; it’s how he elevates everyone around him, making Miami more unpredictable and efficient.
For Dallas, that’s trouble. Quill is still figuring out his best formula, and his defense is regularly exposed. A visit to South Florida, with Miami pressing high and Messi orchestrating attacks, is about as tough as it gets for a team trying to find its feet. If Dallas wants a result, their back line will need to have the game of their season, and they’ll have to hope their strikers, who’ve been mostly quiet, can finally break out.
- Key Matchup: Messi’s creativity against a Dallas defense that’s looked vulnerable all year.
- Coaching Edge: Mascherano’s calm, tactical approach is a stark contrast to Quill’s ongoing rebuild.
- Defensive Disparity: Miami gives up less than a goal per game, while Dallas is closer to conceding one-and-a-quarter each outing.
It’s shaping up as a lopsided battle on paper, but that’s why we watch. With Messi and Miami clicking, and Dallas desperate for a statement result, this MLS showdown is set to answer plenty of questions about where each team is really headed in 2025.
